{
 "_schema": "Each commodity: reserves and production from the cited source. The site computes remaining = reserves - production_rate * (today - reserves_as_of). Nothing here is measured daily; the tick is interpolation and the panel says so.",
 "source": {
  "name": "USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026",
  "url": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/",
  "published": "2026-02-06",
  "license": "CC0 (US Government work)"
 },
 "reserves_as_of": "2026-01-01",
 "tier": "ANNUAL",
 "commodities": [
  {
   "id": "carbon_budget",
   "name": "Carbon budget, 1.5 \u00b0C",
   "unit": "Gt CO\u2082",
   "reserves": 170,
   "production_2025": 42.2,
   "remaining_label": "Gt CO\u2082 left for a 50% chance of 1.5 \u00b0C",
   "resources_note": "Global Carbon Budget 2025: 170 Gt CO\u2082 remaining from the start of 2026; 2025 emissions 38.1 Gt fossil + 4.1 Gt land-use = 42.2 Gt. About four years at the 2025 rate.",
   "concentration": "Top emitters by share of fossil CO\u2082: China ~32%, US ~13%, India ~8%, EU27 ~6% (GCB 2025)",
   "constraint": "Budget, not a reserve: it runs out by accounting, then every further tonne is overshoot",
   "resources_src": "Global Carbon Budget 2025 (Friedlingstein et al.), published 13 Nov 2025",
   "resources_identified_total": null,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "reserves_by_country": {},
   "price_source": null,
   "source_override": {
    "name": "Global Carbon Budget 2025",
    "url": "https://globalcarbonbudget.org/"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "copper",
   "name": "Copper",
   "unit": "Mt",
   "reserves": 980,
   "production_2025": 23.0,
   "resources_note": "Identified resources 1.5 Bt unextracted (USGS 2015 assessment); undiscovered est. 3.5 Bt",
   "concentration": "Chile 18%, Peru 9%, DRC 8% of reserves",
   "constraint": "Ore grade decline; added to US Critical Minerals List Nov 2025",
   "price_source": "IMF PCPS monthly (copper)",
   "reserves_by_country": {
    "US": 47,
    "Australia": 100,
    "Canada": 7,
    "Chile": 180,
    "China": 41,
    "DR Congo": 80,
    "India": 2.2,
    "Indonesia": 21,
    "Kazakhstan": 20,
    "Mexico": 53,
    "Peru": 85,
    "Poland": 33,
    "Russia": 80,
    "Zambia": 21
   },
   "cumulative_mined": {
    "value": 815,
    "unit": "Mt",
    "as_of": "2025",
    "basis": "USGS: 600 Mt mined through 2015 (SIR 2018-5160) plus 2016-2025 world mine production from USGS MCS (~215 Mt)",
    "tier": "ANNUAL (estimate)"
   },
   "demand_path": {
    "growth_pct_by_2040": 30,
    "base_year": 2025,
    "source": "IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, stated policies",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025"
   },
   "resources_identified_total": 1500,
   "resources_undiscovered": 3500,
   "resources_src": "USGS global copper assessment 2015 (SIR 2018-5160): 1.5 Bt identified unextracted (includes reserves); 3.5 Bt undiscovered"
  },
  {
   "id": "lithium",
   "name": "Lithium",
   "unit": "kt",
   "reserves": 37000,
   "production_2025": 290,
   "consumption_2025": 263,
   "resources_note": "Measured and indicated resources ~150 Mt",
   "concentration": "Australia 18%, Chile 25%, China 12%, Argentina 12%, US 12% of reserves",
   "constraint": "Demand growth; batteries 88% of end use; no free price feed",
   "price_source": null,
   "reserves_by_country": {
    "US": 4400,
    "Argentina": 4400,
    "Australia": 6840,
    "Brazil": 540,
    "Canada": 1600,
    "Chile": 9200,
    "China": 4600,
    "Mali": 370,
    "Portugal": 60,
    "Zimbabwe": 500
   },
   "resources_identified_total": 150000,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "resources_src": "USGS MCS 2026: measured and indicated resources ~150 Mt (includes reserves)"
  },
  {
   "id": "cobalt",
   "name": "Cobalt",
   "unit": "kt",
   "reserves": 12000,
   "production_2025": 310,
   "resources_note": "Identified terrestrial ~25 Mt; ~5 Bt in seafloor nodules",
   "concentration": "DRC 73% of output, 50% of reserves; Indonesia 14% of output",
   "constraint": "DRC export quotas 96,600 t/yr for 2026-27",
   "price_source": "IMF PCPS monthly (cobalt)",
   "reserves_by_country": {
    "US": 70,
    "Australia": 1700,
    "Canada": 220,
    "China": 160,
    "DR Congo": 6000,
    "Cuba": 500,
    "Indonesia": 760,
    "Madagascar": 100,
    "Papua New Guinea": 84,
    "Philippines": 260,
    "Russia": 800,
    "Turkey": 91
   },
   "resources_identified_total": 25000,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "resources_src": "USGS MCS 2026: identified terrestrial resources ~25 Mt (includes reserves); ~5 Bt in seafloor nodules not counted"
  },
  {
   "id": "silver",
   "name": "Silver",
   "unit": "kt",
   "reserves": 610,
   "production_2025": 26.0,
   "consumption_2025": 35.7,
   "resources_note": ">2/3 of silver is byproduct of lead-zinc, copper and gold mining",
   "concentration": "Peru 18%, Russia 15%, Australia 15%, China 11% of reserves",
   "constraint": "Mine supply ~73% of consumption; added to US Critical Minerals List Nov 2025",
   "price_source": "IMF PCPS monthly (silver)",
   "reserves_by_country": {
    "US": 23,
    "Argentina": 6.5,
    "Australia": 91,
    "Bolivia": 22,
    "Canada": 4.9,
    "Chile": 33,
    "China": 67,
    "India": 8,
    "Mexico": 37,
    "Peru": 110,
    "Poland": 59,
    "Russia": 92
   },
   "resources_identified_total": null,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "resources_src": "No world resource total published"
  },
  {
   "id": "phosphate",
   "name": "Phosphate rock",
   "unit": "Mt",
   "reserves": 73000,
   "production_2025": 250,
   "resources_note": "World resources >300 Bt; USGS: no imminent shortages",
   "concentration": "Morocco & W. Sahara 68% of reserves; China 44% of output on a 31-yr reserve base",
   "constraint": "No substitute in agriculture; concentration risk; <5% recovered from wastewater",
   "price_source": "World Bank Pink Sheet monthly (phosphate rock)",
   "reserves_by_country": {
    "US": 1000,
    "Algeria": 2200,
    "Australia": 800,
    "Brazil": 1600,
    "China": 3400,
    "Egypt": 2800,
    "Finland": 1000,
    "India": 31,
    "Israel": 60,
    "Jordan": 820,
    "Kazakhstan": 260,
    "Mexico": 30,
    "Morocco": 50000,
    "Peru": 210,
    "Russia": 2400,
    "Saudi Arabia": 1000,
    "Senegal": 50,
    "South Africa": 1500,
    "Syria": 250,
    "Togo": 30,
    "Tunisia": 2500,
    "Turkey": 71,
    "Uzbekistan": 100,
    "Vietnam": 30
   },
   "resources_identified_total": 300000,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "resources_src": "USGS MCS 2026: world resources >300 Bt (includes reserves)"
  },
  {
   "id": "ree",
   "name": "Rare earths (REO)",
   "unit": "kt",
   "reserves": 85000,
   "production_2025": 390,
   "reserves_qualifier": ">",
   "resources_note": "Abundant in crust; minable concentrations and processing are the constraint",
   "concentration": "China ~52% of reserves, ~69% of mine output (quota figure)",
   "constraint": "China export controls: Apr 2025 controls in force; Oct 2025 controls suspended to Nov 2026",
   "price_source": null,
   "reserves_by_country": {
    "US": 1900,
    "Australia": 6300,
    "Brazil": 21000,
    "Canada": 830,
    "China": 44000,
    "Greenland": 1500,
    "Malaysia": 710,
    "Russia": 3800,
    "South Africa": 860,
    "Tanzania": 890,
    "Vietnam": 3500
   },
   "demand_path": {
    "growth_pct_by_2040": 55,
    "base_year": 2025,
    "source": "IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 (50-60% by 2040; midpoint used)",
    "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025"
   },
   "resources_identified_total": null,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "resources_src": "No world resource total published; USGS: abundant in crust, minable concentrations less common"
  },
  {
   "id": "gallium",
   "name": "Gallium",
   "unit": "t",
   "reserves": null,
   "production_2025": 900,
   "resources_note": "Byproduct of bauxite; >1 Mt contained in world bauxite resources; no gallium mines",
   "concentration": "China 99% of primary production",
   "constraint": "China ban on exports to US lifted Nov 2025 for one year",
   "price_source": null,
   "reserves_by_country": {},
   "resources_identified_total": null,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "resources_src": ">1 Mt contained in world bauxite; byproduct only"
  },
  {
   "id": "helium",
   "name": "Helium",
   "unit": "Mm\u00b3",
   "reserves": 12424,
   "production_2025": 190,
   "reserves_qualifier": "\u2248",
   "reserves_note": "Sum of reserves USGS lists by country (US 8,500; Algeria ~1,800; Russia ~1,700; South Africa 400; Poland 24). Qatar is 'large' and unquantified, so the true total is higher. USGS gives no world total.",
   "resources_identified_total": 39790,
   "resources_undiscovered": null,
   "resources_src": "USGS MCS 2026: identified resources outside the US 31.3 billion m\u00b3 (Qatar 10.1, Algeria 8.2, Russia 6.8, Canada 2.0, China 1.1) plus US 8.49 billion m\u00b3 recoverable in identified gas reservoirs",
   "concentration": "US ~68% of quantified reserves; Qatar, Algeria, Russia hold most resources; Russian imports under US/EU sanction",
   "constraint": "Non-renewable at human timescales and lost to space when vented; byproduct of natural gas processing, so supply tracks gas, not helium demand",
   "reserves_by_country": {
    "US": 8500,
    "Algeria": 1800,
    "Russia": 1700,
    "South Africa": 400,
    "Poland": 24
   },
   "price_source": null
  }
 ],
 "fossil": {
  "source": {
   "name": "Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026",
   "url": "https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review",
   "published": "2026-06-30",
   "license": "Copyright Energy Institute; cited with attribution, not mirrored"
  },
  "reserves_as_of": "2020-12-31",
  "reserves_note": "EI has not refreshed proved-reserve totals since year-end 2020; methodology under review. Ratios below are 2020 reserves against 2020 production (OWID-computed R/P). 2025 production reached record highs for all three fuels.",
  "tier": "ANNUAL (reserves stale)",
  "fuels": [
   {
    "id": "oil",
    "name": "Oil",
    "rp_years_2020": 53.5,
    "note": "Oil production +3.5% in 2025 (EI 2026)"
   },
   {
    "id": "gas",
    "name": "Natural gas",
    "rp_years_2020": 48.5,
    "note": "OWID indicator 1295444, world, 2020"
   },
   {
    "id": "coal",
    "name": "Coal",
    "rp_years_2020": 139,
    "note": "Climate constraint binds before geological"
   }
  ]
 },
 "_by_country_note": "reserves_by_country: USGS MCS 2026 world reserves table, same unit as 'unit'; 'Other countries' omitted from the map, included in the world total. Morocco includes Western Sahara.",
 "_demand_note": "demand_path: a compounding growth rate derived from a cited 2040 projection; the second needle on the meter is this scenario, not a measurement. Only commodities with a verified projection carry one.",
 "_resources_note": "resources_identified_total includes reserves (USGS convention). The meter shows identified-beyond-reserves = resources_identified_total - reserves."
}